An hint, look with whom they stand in the European Parliament.

The first early polls published around 2 pm were so extremely pro Kerry that it was ridiculous.  I dont know who leaked them but the effect should have been obvious:  The Bush people pushed their base to go to vote while the Democrats were demobilized by the thinking they had won.

This is particularly striking because of the relatively small number of voters (113 M) why most people were predicting at least 115 M.